War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".